The TV late night chat shows have returned this week.  David Letterman is back with his WGA writers after negotiating a seperate deal with the union.  Jay Leno is back without writers, and his show is better for it.  Jay may have stumbled out of the gates, and curiosity may have driven some viewers to the WGA-written Late Show on Wednesday, but as the strike goes on Jay will prevail.

Jay Leno is a funny guy who honed his comedy on the road for decades.  His style of comedy is observational, topical, and delivered on his feet to a live audience.  In a writer-less world, Jay is back to doing what he has done all his life, the same things he did to get the gig from Johnny Carson in the first place.  Shooting from the hip with live entertainment.  Letterman, on the otherhand, is back to the same old show with the same old writers, relying on scripts and lists and snarky setups to carry the show.

An added bonus for Jay is, that without a script, there is nothing for the NBC censors to edit.  Already the Tonight Show has a fresher, rawer, “I can’t beleive Jay said that” feel.  As the show springs from Jay’s head, all Standards and Practices can do is cringe.  NBC is just happy to have a host on the air, and will give Jay lots of room to improvise and wisecrack, even if it is a bit bluer than they are used to.  The writer’s strike will allow the Tonight Show to be less Jack Paar and more Howard Stern, but then again today our culture is more like Howard than Paar.

So as the Writer’s Guild strike wears on, David Letterman will sink back into the shelter of his standard writer’s room fare.  He will get better guests (as some actors will refuse to cross the picket line) and he will get a small pop in the rating.  Meanwhile Jay Leno is going to get less sleep at night as he worries out jokes, and he will drink more coffee before the show to keep himself on his toes.  Neccessarily, Jay will go places and say things that will keep the guests and audiences on their toes too.  The Tonight Show will look and feel fresh and current, while the Late Show looks like is has for 20 years.